The regional scenarios document the possible impacts on emissions and air quality initiated by potential changes to policies on transportation, technology, fuel, and mobility systems during the upcoming decades. The intention of these scenarios is to show stakeholders that the implementation of sustainable policies plays a critical role in ensuring projected emissions do not become a reality (WEC, 2011).

The objective of this activity is to provide a source of information on current emissions projections and present scenarios for sustainable urban transport and climate change in Latin America and their potential impacts. These initially focus on Argentina, Brazil and Mexico.

3. Regional Vehicle Activity - VKT

VKT ( vehicles kilometers traveled) growth is related to income and population growth, and as such a substantial increase in VKT in developing countries is expected in the next decades, as shown in the business as usual graph. Sustainable development policies are required to minimise this groth and these in turm require regulatory instruments.  Regulatory measures can include physical restraint measures, such as access restriction by registration plates, or urban traffic management systems (traffic signal systems which are linked into a network and coordinated to secure a steady traffic flow). These and other measures have been widely implemented in developed countries where typically reductions of 2% to 5% VKT has been noted and a greater impact is expected in developing countries (World Bank, 2004).

Implementing more emission reduction policies, such as a stronger emphasis on public transport, could reduce the need for road travel, translated into lower fuel consumption and a major reduction in CO2 emissions. Another goal with these policies is to reduce the loss of productivity and fuel consumption related to congestion:  in 2010 American cities estimated losses of $101 billion due to congestion according to the TTI’s 2011 Urban Mobility Report.

Gasoline vehicles regional road travel - business-as-usual policies (billions vkt)

Source: World Energy Council, 2011.

 

Gasoline vehicles regional road travel with emission reduction policies (billions vkt)

Source: World Energy Council, 2011.