The regional scenarios document the possible impacts on emissions and air quality initiated by potential changes to policies on transportation, technology, fuel, and mobility systems during the upcoming decades. The intention of these scenarios is to show stakeholders that the implementation of sustainable policies plays a critical role in ensuring projected emissions do not become a reality (WEC, 2011).

The objective of this activity is to provide a source of information on current emissions projections and present scenarios for sustainable urban transport and climate change in Latin America and their potential impacts. These initially focus on Argentina, Brazil and Mexico.

2. Regional CO2 Emissions from Transportation

A study carried out by the World Energy Council examined two distinct models on transport scenarios “Freeway" and "Tollway” in order to evaluate the approach of government intervention in regulating future transport markets. The “Freeway” scenario assumes business-as-usual policies with little intervention to promote sustainable development.  The “Tollway” scenario shows the impacts of a sustainable development policy that emphasizes energy efficienc and public transport, lowers growth rates of vehicle ownership, assumes a certain level of hybrid and CNG vehicles entering the market, and other proven policy options. In the Tollway model governments decide to work to promote cleaner technologies and adopt low carbon policies.

Mexico and Brazil are the two highest emitters of CO2 in the Latin American region.  In this section they are included in the figures separately, with the rest of the Latin American countries included within one category “Rest of the Region”.

The Latin American region, though poised for growth, faces significant economic and resource challenges.  Unless regional leaders plan for the future in their policymaking, regional CO2 emissions will more than double from current levels by 2050.  More disturbing, however, is the fact that increasing motorization rates, a side effect of economic development, could lead to large increases in energy use and oil dependence.

Regional CO2 with "business as usual" policies (millions of tons/year)

Source: International Energy Agency (IEA, 2011), and World Energy Council (WEC, 2011).

 

Regional CO2 Emissions with emission reduction policies (millions of tons/year)

Source: International Energy Agency (IEA, 2011), and World Energy Council (WEC, 2011).