The regional scenarios document the possible impacts on emissions and air quality initiated by potential changes to policies on transportation, technology, fuel, and mobility systems during the upcoming decades. The intention of these scenarios is to show stakeholders that the implementation of sustainable policies plays a critical role in ensuring projected emissions do not become a reality (WEC, 2011).

The objective of this activity is to provide a source of information on current emissions projections and present scenarios for sustainable urban transport and climate change in Latin America and their potential impacts. These initially focus on Argentina, Brazil and Mexico.

5. Emissions and Alternate Transport Scenario

Mexico’s growing number of cars is putting pressure on initiatives to reduce emissions. Left unchecked, CO2 emissions are predicted to double by 2050. CO2 is not the only concern. General pollution levels in Mexico will need to decrease, or else Mexico will see a number of other related problems including rising healthcare costs, lowered economic desirability, and others. Mexico is at a turning point right now where emissions can easily become unsustainable unless policy decisions to reduce emissions are made.

Mexican CO2 Emissions From Transportation

Source: World Energy Council, 2011.

 

Mexico will need to decrease oil reliance, promote transit, and develop its renewable energy sources in order to keep CO2 emissions from becoming a major problem.

In this regard, The World Bank through the Clean Energy Investment Framework program with support of The Center of Sustainable Transport in Mexico (CTS, in Spanish) identified and assessed public policy projects in Mexico to thereby cope with change climate. This program seeks to develop projects in which investments are identified low carbon emissions in four sectors, such as the electricity sector, the sources fixed energy use, the use of soil and bioenergy as well as in transport.

The next graph shows the results of a low carbon study analysis for Mexico’s transport scenario (MEDEC – CTS and World Bank, 2009). Emissions are projected to reach more than 413 Mton CO2e in 2030 with a “do minimum” or Business as Usual scenario. However, Mexico is continuing to work in low carbon initiatives. A broad road of policies already exists and the challenge is to implement these policies including the densification of urban areas, energy efficiency standards for new vehicles, better technology for public transit, optimization of transport route, BRT systems, non motorized transportation, vehicular restrictions, freight transport coordination and promotion of freight trains. With the successful implementation of all of these policies, Mexico could reach an important emission reduction of 275 Mton CO2e.

Projected emissions increases with business as usual and Do Maximum Scenarios

Source: MEDEC – CTS and World Bank, 2009.